Clauset, Aaron and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2012) The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations. PLoS ONE, 7 (11). e48633-e48633. DOI https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048633
Clauset, Aaron and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2012) The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations. PLoS ONE, 7 (11). e48633-e48633. DOI https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048633
Clauset, Aaron and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2012) The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations. PLoS ONE, 7 (11). e48633-e48633. DOI https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048633
Abstract
We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes. © 2012 Clauset, Gleditsch.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Linear Models; Motivation; Models, Theoretical; Time Factors; Terrorism; Politics; Computer Simulation |
Subjects: | J Political Science > JA Political science (General) |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 19 Sep 2013 16:07 |
Last Modified: | 30 Oct 2024 19:50 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7561 |
Available files
Filename: journal.pone.0048633.pdf