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Probabilistic Expectations in Developing Countries

Delavande, Adeline (2014) 'Probabilistic Expectations in Developing Countries.' Annual Review of Economics, 6 (1). pp. 1-20. ISSN 1941-1383

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Abstract

<jats:p> Many decisions are made under uncertainty, and individuals are likely to form subjective expectations about the probabilities of events that are relevant to their decisions. I review here a recent and growing literature that uses probabilistic expectations elicited from survey respondents in developing countries. I first present an illustrative model of one particular decision under uncertainty—the choice of a college—to exemplify the importance of subjective expectations data for identification purposes. I then review existing evidence emphasizing that it is feasible to elicit probabilities from survey respondents in low-literacy settings and describe common patterns of answers. Finally, I describe existing applications, many of which seek to assess how expectations influence behavior, in various domains, including health, education, agricultural production, and migration. </jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: subjective expectations; beliefs; expected returns to education; expected HIV status; expected income
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Social and Economic Research
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 14 Nov 2014 12:52
Last Modified: 18 Aug 2022 11:39
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/11614

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