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Measuring revisions to subjective expectations

Delavande, Adeline (2008) 'Measuring revisions to subjective expectations.' Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 36 (1). pp. 43-82. ISSN 0895-5646

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This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their ex pectations about the effectiveness of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations with receipt of the same information. When relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable characteristics, I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact on the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: subjective expectations; prior; posterior distribution; updating
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Social and Economic Research
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 19 Sep 2013 15:55
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2022 18:50

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