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Forecast Rationality and Monetary Policy Frameworks: Evidence from UK Interest Rate Forecasts

Chortareas, GE and Jitmaneeroj, B and Wood, A (2009) Forecast Rationality and Monetary Policy Frameworks: Evidence from UK Interest Rate Forecasts. UNSPECIFIED. EBS Working Papers, Colchester.


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This paper explores the heterogeneity and rationality of professional forecasts at both short and long forecast horizons. We employ disaggregated survey data for forecasts of three-month inter-bank rates and ten-year gilt yields for the period 1989-2006. We find evidence of heterogeneity among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts violate both the unbiasedness and orthogonality conditions of the rational expectations hypothesis. The majority of biased forecasts underestimate the future spot rate. The rationality of forecasts varies across maturities and forecast horizons with short horizon and short maturity forecasts exhibiting more rationality. It also varies across sub-periods corresponding to different monetary policy frameworks. We produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement, as recorded in the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee, influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect.

Item Type: Monograph (UNSPECIFIED)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Rational Expectations, Heterogeneity, Survey Forecasts, Term Structure, Monetary Policy Frameworks
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School > Essex Finance Centre
Depositing User: Users 161 not found.
Date Deposited: 03 Jan 2014 11:40
Last Modified: 02 Jan 2018 23:16

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