Bartle, John (2003) 'Partisanship, Performance and Personality.' Party Politics, 9 (3). pp. 317-345. ISSN 1354-0688

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Abstract

<jats:p> The study of voting behaviour is characterized by controversy about the `importance' of various explanatory themes and specific variables, but there is a widespread reluctance to assess these hypotheses in a comprehensive causal model. This article specifies a model of Labour and Conservative voting in the 2001 British General Election which incorporates a whole series of competing and complementary hypotheses. The results suggest that partisanship, prospective evaluations of competence and favourable evaluations of Tony Blair all contributed to Labour's victory, while retrospective evaluations of Labour's record on crime and asylum-seekers reduced the size of Labour's victory. Analyses that incorporate a new measure of party identification suggest that long-term partisanship may have contributed less and short-term factors correspondingly more to the aggregate election outcome. </jats:p>

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	causal modelling; evaluations of party leaders; party identification; prospective voting; retrospective voting
Subjects:	J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor:	Elements
Depositing User:	Elements
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2014 10:45
Last Modified:	15 Jan 2022 00:18
URI:	http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/9873

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