Race, Trust, and Return-Migration: The Political Drivers of Post-Disaster Resettlement

After several disasters in the US, the return migration rate of Blacks to post-disaster areas has been lower than that of other races. Is there is a political reason for this pattern? I investigate political trust as the mechanism through which race affects people?s decision of where to live after forced evacuation. After accounting for economic, demographic, and sociological influences on return-migration, I find that political trust has a significant effect, acting as a mediator between race and return migration. I am thus able to show that race does not have a direct effect on return migration in the US, but that race works through the causal mechanism of political trust to determine return-migration decisions. Since Blacks are more likely to have low levels of political trust, and those with lower political trust are less likely to return, Blacks are less likely to return.