Ornithology and varieties of conflict: A personal retrospective on conflict forecasting

This note provides a retrospective on lessons learned in research on conflict forecasting, motivated by reflections around the retirement of Professor Michael D. Ward from Duke University. I argue that an excessive focus on “black swans” or surprising events that are hard to forecast detracts from considering the more frequent “white swans” or regularities in conflict. It is often more useful to focus on modal conflicts than exceptions, and substantial progress has been made in recent research. I identify some key lessons learned and highlight the need for researchers to distinguish between features that are more or less difficult to forecast.