Kellard, NM and Harvey, D and Madsen, J and Wohar, M (2018) The Resource Curse, Commodity Prices and Economic Growth. In: Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics. Routledge Studies in Development Economics . Routledge, London and New York, pp. 16-50. ISBN 978-1138898257. Official URL: https://www.routledge.com/9781138898257
Kellard, NM and Harvey, D and Madsen, J and Wohar, M (2018) The Resource Curse, Commodity Prices and Economic Growth. In: Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics. Routledge Studies in Development Economics . Routledge, London and New York, pp. 16-50. ISBN 978-1138898257. Official URL: https://www.routledge.com/9781138898257
Kellard, NM and Harvey, D and Madsen, J and Wohar, M (2018) The Resource Curse, Commodity Prices and Economic Growth. In: Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics. Routledge Studies in Development Economics . Routledge, London and New York, pp. 16-50. ISBN 978-1138898257. Official URL: https://www.routledge.com/9781138898257
Abstract
The direction of trend in relative commodity prices has implications for many developing country growth rates. To assess causal underpinnings we create ultra- long aggregate series shaped by common factors. Tests show that series present a downward trend over the entire sample which can be broken into 4 regimes of predominantly increasing decline: 1650-1820, 1821-1872, 1873-1946 and 1947- 2010. We argue factors like technology are commensurate with this structure. Finally, we suggest the trend in economic activity is a proxy for such factors and show a negative relationship between trends in commodity prices and World GDP that helps explain the resource curse.
| Item Type: | Book Section |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | This is an Accepted Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge in Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics on 19 January 2018, available online: http://www.routledge.com/9781138898257. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Primary commodities; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; Economic growth; Structural breaks; Cycles; Resource Curse |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School |
| SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Dec 2017 11:37 |
| Last Modified: | 16 May 2024 19:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/20788 |
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