Longitudinal Prediction of Divorce in Russia: The Role of Individual and Couple Drinking Patterns

Aims: The aim of the study was to explore associations between dimensions of alcohol use in married couples and subsequent divorce in Russia using longitudinal data. Methods: Follow-up data on 7157 married couples were extracted from 14 consecutive annual rounds (1994–2010) of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, a national population-based panel study. Discrete-time hazard models were fitted to estimate the probability of divorce among married couples by drinking patterns reported in the previous survey wave. Results: In adjusted models, increased odds of divorce were associated with greater frequency of husband and wife drinking (test for trend P = 0.005, and P = 0.05, respectively), wife's binge drinking (P = 0.05) and husband's heavy vodka drinking (P = 0.005). Couples in whom the wife drank more frequently than the husband were more likely to divorce (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.52–5.36), compared with other combinations of drinking. The association between drinking and divorce was stronger in regions outside Moscow or St. Petersburg. Conclusion: This study adds to the sparse literature on the topic and suggests that in Russia heavy and frequent drinking of both husbands and wives put couples at greater risk of future divorce, with some variation by region and aspect of alcohol use.