Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity

An increasing number of police departments use information technology (IT) to optimize patrolling strategies, yet little is known about its effectiveness in prevent- ing crime. Based on quasi-random access to "predictive policing," this study shows that IT improves police productivity as measured by crime clearance rates. Thanks to detailed information on individual incidents and offender-level identifiers it also shows that criminals strategies are predictable. Moreover, the introduction of pre- dictive policing coincides with a large negative trend-discontinuity in crime rates. The benefit-cost ratio of this IT innovation appears to be large.