Ozbekler, Ali Gencay and Kontonikas, Alexandros and Triantafyllou, Athanasios (2021) Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets. International Journal of Forecasting, 37 (4). pp. 1691-1709. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.03.009
Ozbekler, Ali Gencay and Kontonikas, Alexandros and Triantafyllou, Athanasios (2021) Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets. International Journal of Forecasting, 37 (4). pp. 1691-1709. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.03.009
Ozbekler, Ali Gencay and Kontonikas, Alexandros and Triantafyllou, Athanasios (2021) Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets. International Journal of Forecasting, 37 (4). pp. 1691-1709. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.03.009
Abstract
In this paper we examine the predictive power of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR)model for the return volatility of major European government bond markets. Results fromHAR-type volatility forecasting models show that past short and medium-term volatilityare significant predictors of the term structure of intraday volatility of European bondswith maturities ranging from 1-year up to 30-years. When we decompose bond marketvolatility into its continuous and discontinuous (jump) component, we find that the jumpcomponent is a significant predictor. Moreover, we show that feedback from past short-term volatility to the forecast of future volatility is stronger in days that precede monetarypolicy announcements.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bonds, Realized Volatility, Volatility Forecasting, Jumps, Monetary PolicyAnnouncements |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 25 Mar 2021 15:29 |
Last Modified: | 16 May 2024 20:44 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/30098 |
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Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0