Coup-proofing, reconstruction, and resource allocation in fragile and post-conflict countries

In this thesis, I explore three main questions. How do resource windfalls affect leaders' coup-proofing strategies when facing coup risk? Second, what does determine the sub-national allocation of post-conflict donors' reconstruction aid? Third, under which conditions is aid an effective tool to promote the redevelopment of the manufacturing sector of post-conflict countries? In the first two chapters, developing an opportunity-willingness framework, I investigate how access to natural resources and unearmarked aid affects leaders' decisions to undertake institutional coup-proofing when facing coup risk. On the empirical side, I also present and discuss a strategy to capture the relation between coup risk, discretionally allocable resources and institutional coup-proofing taking into account the multidirectional dynamics between these dimensions. Results from a cross-section time-series analysis suggest that leaders who have access to funds they can discretionally allocate are less likely than others to undertake institutional coup-proofing efforts when facing coup risk. In the third chapter I co-authored with dr. Steinwand, we investigate how political support for the former warring factions affected the sub-national allocation of donors' resources across Nepal since the end of the civil war in 2006. Results suggest that the peace agreement that concluded the decade-long conflict was unsuccessful to prevent partisan allocation of aid. Finally, in the last chapter, I study via a cross-section time series analysis if and to what extent donors' efforts to rebuild the energy infrastructures of post-conflict countries contribute to promoting recipient countries' manufacturing sector. I find that resources targeting the restoration of facilities to produce and distribute energy have a significant and positive impact in spurring the manufacturing sector of countries that experienced a conflict. Presented findings increase our understanding of the factors affecting civil-military relations and state-budgeting in fragile countries. At the same time, they advance our understanding of how aid shapes post-conflict countries.