Shi, Yukun and Chen, Ding and Guo, Biao and Xu, Yaofei and Yan, Cheng (2022) The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 83. p. 102295. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102295
Shi, Yukun and Chen, Ding and Guo, Biao and Xu, Yaofei and Yan, Cheng (2022) The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 83. p. 102295. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102295
Shi, Yukun and Chen, Ding and Guo, Biao and Xu, Yaofei and Yan, Cheng (2022) The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 83. p. 102295. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102295
Abstract
Using the theoretical link between put options and credit default swaps (CDS) in a very general setting, we develop a robust measure of CDS implied volatility (CIV) that captures the information content of CDS markets. Specifically, we use the unit recovery claim to bridge CDS and deep out-of-the-money put options of the same firm and then back out CIV via the binomial tree. Our CIV measure strongly co-moves with the option implied volatility (OIV), with a correlation coefficient of 0.8. Based on the standardized difference between CIV and OIV, we construct CDS and option trading strategies. Without taking transaction costs into account, the long-short CDS trading strategy achieves an annualized return of 58.29% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.97, which can not be explained by non-parametric skewness and volatility risk.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | CDS; Implied volatility; Default probability; Unit recovery claim; Trading strategies |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 12 Jul 2022 14:10 |
Last Modified: | 30 Oct 2024 20:04 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/33139 |
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