The Lifecycle of Secession: Interactions, Processes and Predictions

This chapter investigates the ‘lifecycle of secession’, that is, the four main stages through which self-determination movements may pass, from emergence and consolidation to escalation and recognition. As a political phenomenon, the desire for self-determination and the pursuit of secession underpin many modern civil wars; and civil wars are now – and have been for some time – the primary challenge to international peace and security, not to mention one of the greatest problems domestically in countries plagued by it for economic prosperity, solidarity, development and democracy.4 Predicting when, where and which demands for self-determina- tion will emerge, consolidate, turn violent and gain recognition is thus a crucial task for everyone concerned with international security and world order as well as for those focused on democracy and development. To make accurate predictions, we therefore focus on theories and analyses that speak to the when and where of these disparate stages in the lifecycle of secession.