The influence of waiting times and sociopolitical variables on public trust in healthcare: A cross-sectional study of the NHS in England

Objectives: This study aims to assess factors influencing public trust in the National Health Service (NHS) in England, focusing on the impact of waiting times in Accident & Emergency (A&E) departments and for GP-to-specialist cancer referrals. Study design: A cross-sectional survey-based research design was employed, covering the period from July 2022 to July 2023. Methods: Data were collected through YouGov surveys, yielding 7415 responses. Our analysis is based on 6952 of these responses which we were able to aggregate to 42 NHS Integrated Care Boards (ICBs) for A&E waiting times and 106 ICB sub-units for cancer referral times. Multiple regression analysis was conducted, with the dependent variable being trust in the NHS. Results: Waiting times for A&E and cancer referrals did not significantly affect trust in the NHS. However, other sociopolitical factors displayed significant influence. Specifically, being a member of an ethnic minority group, or having voted Conservative in the 2019 general election were associated with lower trust scores. Other variables such as age and local unemployment rate were also significant predictors. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that waiting times for healthcare services have no effect on public trust in the NHS. Instead, trust appears to be largely shaped by sociopolitical factors. Policymakers should therefore look beyond operational efficiency when seeking to bolster trust in the healthcare system.