How Do Electoral Outcomes Affect Campaign Contributions? The Role of Personal Loyalty and Investment Motives

How do electoral outcomes affect campaign contributions? We argue that in contexts where personal connections to the candidate and investment motivations dominate ideology and partisanship as drivers of donations, two main factors shape donors' future behavior: 1) government benefits accrued by donors (e.g., contracts) and 2) whether the supported candidate runs again in future elections. Using data from Colombian mayoral elections, a context with no reelection, weak parties, and non-ideological races, we find that donating to the winning candidate reduces the probability of donating in the next election. We further show that, among donors to the winner, those who receive a contract from the municipality are more likely to continue donating than those without contracts. The findings highlight the importance of personal loyalty to the candidate and the fulfillment of donors' investment expectations determining campaign contributions in non-established democracies.