Party fragmentation and problems of accountability in the British general election of 2024

Under ‘first past the post’ (FPTP), voters can hold governments to account by ‘throwing the rascals out’. The 2024 British general election appears to offer a clear-cut example, with voters removing the Conservatives after 14 years in government. However, FPTP ensures that the principal alternative to a Conservative government is a Labour government. This paper argues that ‘throwing the rascals out’ works best for centrist voters with a genuine choice between the two major governing options. But it is problematic for non-centrist voters because it can deliver a government they prefer even less. The paper focuses on Conservative promises and failings on immigration policy to show that right-wing voters who wanted to punish the government by abstaining or voting for Reform UK effectively magnified Labour's victory into a parliamentary ‘super-majority’ in 2024. The prospect of such outcomes occurring is greater in an era of dealignment and party fragmentation, where non-centrist electoral options are available but FPTP hinders their ability to convert votes into seats. This problem would be less likely to occur under a proportional electoral system because voters can switch support between proximate parties in the same ideological ‘bloc’ without indirectly helping the rival bloc.