Awakening the Sleeping Giant: Rising Euroscepticism & Turnout in European Parliament Elections

After decades of decline, voter turnout in European Parliament (EP) elections has surged since 2014. This article hypothesises that the recent increase in voter participation results from the politicisation of European integration and the rise of Eurosceptic parties at the national level. Two empirical analyses support this hypothesis: a time-series cross-sectional analysis of aggregate turnout across all 202 EP elections held between 1979 and 2024, and a hierarchical analysis of nearly 200,000 individual voting decisions from all ten European Election Studies to date. The results indicate that, while EP turnout is unrelated to economic or cultural political divisions, it is strongly associated with the prior success of Eurosceptic parties in national elections. Turnout increases as these parties gain domestic seats, primarily reflecting stronger participation among Eurosceptic voters and, to a lesser extent, counter-mobilisation by pro-Europeans. Secondary findings underscore the influence of institutional factors, such as compulsory voting and election frequency.