‘Surge‐and‐Collapse’ under First Past the Post: Reform UK 's Electoral Threat to the Conservative Party

Could the Conservative Party lose its status as one of the two major parties in the British party system and be supplanted by Reform UK? Such collapses are rare under the first‐past‐the‐post electoral system, but not unknown. We consider Alan Ware's argument that major‐party collapses follow a catastrophic election defeat after a party finds itself fighting on two separate fronts. This applies to the Conservatives, who lost votes to small parties to their left (Liberal Democrats) and right (Reform) simultaneously, as well as to Labour. Catastrophic ‘surge‐and‐collapse’ electoral defeats are possible when major parties are challenged not only in the marginal constituencies, but also in ‘safe’ seats, typically because of the intervention of minor parties. The conditions are in place for a Conservative collapse, but it is not guaranteed, owing to questions over Reform's long‐term ability to supplant the Conservatives as Britain's major right‐wing party.