The Green Divergence: a critical political economy of the energy transition in China and the United States

States have responded differently to the global challenge of leading a green energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Despite its overwhelming advantages at the turn of the century, the United States has largely failed to establish a cohesive federal framework for decarbonisation, while China has emerged as the global leader in renewable energy manufacturing and deployment. This unexpected reversal over the past two decades, which I term the Green Divergence, raises an urgent question: why did China achieve relative success in advancing a green economy while the US remained trapped in fossil fuel dependence? This dissertation argues that the Green Divergence was primarily caused by the contrasting compositions of the two countries’ national economies, shaped by the global processes of deindustrialisation in the US and rapid industrialisation in China. In the United States, deindustrialisation produced structural barriers that amplified fossil capital’s dominance, weakened pro-transition coalitions, and locked the state into a fossil fuel-dependent economy reinforced by fracking and financialisation. By contrast, China’s industrialisation created structural incentives for the state to pursue ambitious renewable policies: urban pollution crises compelled ecological modernisation, manufacturing-led growth incentivised investment in green industries, and surging energy demand allowed renewables to expand without displacing incumbent fuel sources. The significance of this research is twofold. First, it illuminates why the world’s two largest emitters have followed divergent energy pathways, offering crucial lessons for designing effective transition governance. Second, it highlights how geopolitical tensions between the US and China can be read through the lens of climate politics, with China’s rise as a “green” hegemon and the US' stagnation revealing competing visions for the world in the twenty-first century.