The Red–Green Electoral Threat to the Labour Party

For the first time, Labour faces credible electoral threats from minor parties to its left. The Greens and the newly formed Your Party offer left-wing and Muslim voters disillusioned with Labour viable electoral alternatives and parliamentary representation. This article considers how great the threat is to Labour. It uses a model of how minor parties emerge under the first-past-the-post electoral system to show that Labour faces challenges in some of its safest seats. The Greens pose a threat in English cities while Your Party and Muslim independents are competitive in constituencies with sizeable Muslim populations. Nevertheless, a major collapse for Labour would happen only if these parties and their potential voters were prepared to split the left-wing vote in more marginal constituencies, potentially handing power to the right at the next election. The minor parties and independents might need to coordinate to maximise their respective performances, possibly through an electoral pact.