Military conversion in post-conflict countries: Determinants, impact, and a case study on policy implications for Colombia

This dissertation examines the determinants and the impact of military conversion on conflict recurrence in post-conflict countries. The dissertation also aims to identify some of the main elements needed to design a public policy addressing conversion processes. Military conversion is the process of transferring military resources to civilian activities. This process could appear after the end of an internal war. Based on existing theoretical and empirical studies, I develop a new empirical framework that allows me to identify that democratic regimes could lead to the onset of a military conversion process, while the US military aid variable could reduce the likelihood of starting a conversion process. Likewise, I test the effect of military conversion on the risk of conflict recurrence. The empirical evidence shows that the reduction of the military expenditure could prompt the probability of conflict recurrence. Additionally, the Colombian case study complements the findings on conversion determinants in a post-conflict society, specifically how the persistence of defence and security threats and economic growth affect the onset of military conversion process. Besides those findings, the Colombian case study provides evidence about the reallocation of less-used military resources to new or existing military roles. The use of less-used military resources for fulfilling any military role could reverse conversion processes in the short term. Additionally, I identify the future and feasible conversion alternatives in Colombia according to the dual use of some military resources (e.g., military bases).