Locally grown, globally connected: armed group affiliation with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda

With many local Islamist militant groups working as affiliates for al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, terrorism has changed greatly over the past 10 years. Relevant research has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding for the causes and consequences of such affiliations and how they alter the dynamics of terrorism at the local and global levels. To address this shortcoming, this dissertation provides answers to these important questions that help in understanding how global terrorism develops with the increasing number of players. First, I ask why some local Islamist militants join transnational networks of jihad and others do not. Using new data on 122 Islamist militant groups, over 1998-2016, I find that groups with low local legitimacy have a higher likelihood of affiliation. Second, I ask how groups' rhetoric shifts after affiliation. I analyze the case of Boko Haram, 2006-2023, studying more than 100 speeches and other documents. I find evidence that the rhetoric of the local group shifts from being politically to religiously focused after affiliation, to signal commitment, religiosity, accommodation, and altruism, to the different audiences. Third, with Brian J. Phillips, we examine the consequences of these affiliations on groups’ use of violence. Illustrative case studies of al-Shabaab and Boko Haram along with analyses of 95 Islamist militant organizations from 1998-2020 show that groups generally engage in more attacks after affiliation. However, disaggregation suggests that the relationship is only robust for AQ. The findings of this dissertation contribute to debates about transnationalization of conflicts, dynamics of new jihadist civil wars, and militant alliances. By focusing on aspects of legitimacy, identification of local groups and networks, and consequential violence, this dissertation lays down a path for further development of research on global jihad. The dissertation also demonstrates the importance of local channels, thus potentially contributing to more effective counter-terrorism measures.