Do high minimum wages harm the progression of minimum wage workers? Evidence from the UK

Using panel data from the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2019, we study how substantial increases in the real and relative value of the minimum wage impacted on the wage progression of covered workers. We find that progression out of minimum wage jobs is frequent, although most workers remain low paid. Using hazard rate models, we find a short-lived negative effect on progression associated with the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016. In subsequent years, we find no evidence of significant adverse effects. We find similar results when we model wage growth directly.