Measurement error in models of welfare participation

We consider the problem of modeling welfare participation when measurement error may affect simulated welfare entitlement. We identify a flaw in past implementations of the ML approach and develop a more appropriate ML approach. A model of welfare participation is estimated for British pensioners, linking the probability of participation to the value of benefit entitlement, incorporating the nonlinear rule relating entitlement to the household's income and financial assets. The model is used to evaluate the claim costs incurred by participants. When we allow for measurement errors in income and assets, estimated claim costs are substantially reduced.